India doesn’t look at China by connecting Kathmandu!?

# Muna Chand

India has tried to make its wishes clear in Nepal by using Track Two diplomacy. Based on the Track Two diplomacy used by India so far, it is said that China has no hand in the deterioration of India’s relations with Nepal. India has tried to dispel the misconception that it does not care about the BRI agreement in Kathmandu because of Prime Minister KP Oli’s close ties with China. They have also sent a message that Delhi is not looking at the problem with China by linking Kathmandu, but rather is looking at it with its own eyes.

India has used Track Two diplomacy to increase its influence in Nepal. To do this, they have reached out to various political parties, civil society, and religious leaders.

After the formation of this government, India has tried to make its views clear not only between Indian officials visiting Nepal and Nepali officials visiting India, but also in informal meetings with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba in Thailand recently. BJP’s foreign department head Vijay Chauthaiwale, who is currently on a visit to Nepal, is also facilitating the government’s leadership change efforts. India’s long-standing attempt to change the prime minister by putting forward Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has not been successful.

India’s first thought is to remove Oli from the post of Prime Minister. Deuba, the President of the ruling party Nepali Congress, should be ready for this. If Deuba creates a situation where he seeks an alternative to Prime Minister Oli, Oli cannot remain as Prime Minister. There is no possibility of another coalition being formed in parliament for Oli. However, it is not easy for Deuba to abandon the American line and go to the Indian line. It is not easy for Deuba to get along with the Maoists because the Americans have used Prime Minister Oli as an alternative to the Maoists rather than trusting him. Meanwhile, Oli is also preparing for a unity process with the Unified Socialists.

Religious organizations are also active in expanding India’s influence in Nepal. India has long assisted organizations in Nepal that demand a Hindu nation.

One side of India wants to remove Oli from the post of Prime Minister right now, while the other side is in favor of improving relations with Oli after waiting for that time, as Oli will step down himself after the next 15 months. Prime Minister Modi, on the other hand, is understood to be thinking that it will be easier to make pilgrimages to Nepal while looking for an alternative to Oli. There is also an analysis that Oli is working to create an environment in Nepal that is contrary to India due to Oli’s habit of speaking insultingly. From all these analyses, it can be concluded that it will not be easy for India to remove Oli. However, the key to power lies with Deuba, the president of the ruling Nepali Congress party.

Allegations that India has been supporting recent calls to restore the monarchy in Nepal are gradually being confirmed. However, India has denied this. The Indians seem to be more focused on bargaining than on system change.

Thus, it seems India is changing its approach towards Nepal. It has started looking at Nepal’s issues not only from a political perspective, but also from a religious and security perspective. This could have a major impact on Nepal-India relations in the future.