Is the European Commission Planning to Exchange EU Membership for Territorial Concessions from Ukraine?

Brussels/Kyiv. The British newspaper Financial Times has reported that the European Commission is planning to propose European Union (EU) membership to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in exchange for accepting territorial concessions (particularly the Donbas region) for a ceasefire.

Citing European Commission officials, the newspaper wrote, “EU officials believe that Zelenskyy will only be able to accept aspects of a possible peace deal, such as territorial concessions to Russia, if he can present EU membership as a positive outcome.”

According to the article’s core premise, Zelenskyy cannot simply give Donbas to Russia because he is a ‘mighty and victorious’ leader. Therefore, it is necessary to present it to the public as a victory, which is why post-war EU membership is being viewed as a ‘victory option.’

However, the Financial Times itself notes that some EU member states are against this proposal because they view Ukraine as an economic and security burden.

Core Message and Impact:
This news indicates deep strategic divisions within the European Union regarding Ukraine. On one hand, there is a desire to provide strategic support to Ukraine and maintain a stance against Russia. On the other hand, due to the economic burden of the war, the refugee crisis, and long-term security risks, there is also a desire to distance oneself from it.

If this plan is true, it signals a major shift in the strategy of Western countries for ending the Ukraine-Russia war. It is an attempt to get the leadership in power in Kyiv to agree to a regional settlement by dangling the ‘carrot’ of EU membership.

However, this raises serious questions:

1. Will the Ukrainian public and military accept the sacrifice of Donbas in exchange for EU membership?
2. Will the European Union genuinely complete Ukraine’s membership process, or is this merely part of a political settlement?
3. Will this set a precedent for future geopolitical settlements by offering other countries the hope of EU membership in exchange for territorial concessions?

This could also impact European unity. Russia-averse countries like Poland and the Baltic states might see such a deal as rewarding Russia and betraying Ukraine, while countries like Germany and France might consider it a practical step to end the war.

Overall, this proposal could mark the beginning of a serious and risky settlement for both the end of the Ukraine war and the future of the European security architecture.