A source of Squad stability or a cause of conflict?

#Prem Sagar Poudel

The United States, the Philippines, Australia, and Japan conducted joint naval exercises in the South China Sea on Wednesday, February 14, 2024. At the same time, the Philippine media did not hesitate to create and propagate the story of the alleged Chinese “demon ship”, which attempted to divert attention from the real root cause of regional instability. The real question is: Who is disrupting the peace in the South China Sea? The answer is clear.

The exercise is the first joint military exercise between the four nations since the new US administration took office. According to a US analyst, the exercise signals the continued development of the US-Japan-Australia Philippines quadrilateral structure, informally known as the “Squad”.

The Philippines tries to garner international sympathy by portraying itself as a victim, but at the same time seeks to strengthen its geopolitical hold by bringing external powers into the South China Sea and staging military demonstrations. Manila’s strategic thinking is clear: to show aggressive behavior with the support of strong allies, which works to increase regional tensions. In line with this trend, the squad’s first joint naval exercise was done in April last year.

Some analysts have described the Squad as the added “S” of Indo-Pacific regional security. But, in reality, the Squad is only a temporary coalition of different interests, which has made no tangible contribution other than increasing tensions in the South China Sea. Its unity is only superficial, as its members are seeking their own strategic advantage rather than regional stability.

Perhaps the “S” in Squad stands for “Sabotage” or “Strife.” While the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines claim to promote peace in the name of joint military exercises, they are actually making the South China Sea more unstable.

In addition, the Philippines has been adopting a more aggressive stance with the support of external alliances, making it look like a “creeper with poisonous thorns.” The more it relies on foreign support, the more it deepens regional disagreements, which threatens to make the South China Sea even more conflict-ridden.

The uncertainty in US foreign policy has raised questions about the stability of its long-term alliances, with the future of lately connected groups like the SQUAD looking increasingly uncertain. Despite Washington’s strategy has changed over time, its tendency to use regional partners to further its interests remains constant. The Philippines is also being used by the US to escalate tensions in the South China Sea, with long-term consequences that could be fatal for Manila.

Along with the Squad’s naval exercises, the US and the Philippines conducted joint air patrols this week. Senior Colonel Li Jianjian, spokesman for the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army of China, commented on the activities as an attempt to disrupt regional peace and stability. Not only that, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed Washington’s “unwavering commitment” to the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty in a telephone conversation with his Philippine counterpart. However, if the situation spirals out of control, Manila will understand that Washington’s commitment is primarily based on self-interest, not a guarantee of real security.

Ultimately, lasting peace and stability in the South China Sea depends on dialogue and collaboration, not on creating one “monster” after another to distract attention from the real provocations work. The strategy of escalating conflict by relying on external forces will not succeed, but will only push peace further away.