Analysis of Recent US-China Tensions
# By Prem Sagar Poudel
On May 31, 2025, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pat Heggseth accused China of “systematic coercion” against regional nations during the Shangri-La Dialogue, specifically condemning Beijing’s policies on Taiwan and the South China Sea. In response, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson denounced these remarks on June 1 as reflecting a “Cold War mentality,” highlighting their “provocative and discriminatory nature” and warning they endanger regional peace.
Heggseth claimed China leverages economic and military power to pressure neighbors a reference to its island-building and militarization in the South China Sea. His reiteration of U.S. military support for Taiwan was labeled “interference in internal affairs” by China. The U.S. further accused Beijing of violating international maritime law (UNCLOS).
China dismissed the allegations as “historical ignorance” and “geographical arrogance,” emphasizing three points: Taiwan is an “indivisible part” of China; the U.S. must honor the Three U.S.-China Joint Communiqués (1972, 1979, 1982) prohibiting interference in Taiwan; and Washington is promoting “division and rivalry” in Asia. Beijing framed its South China Sea actions as promoting “maritime peace and cooperation,” calling the U.S. the “primary catalyst of regional instability.”
The Taiwan dispute traces back to the 1949 Chinese Civil War. U.S. military aid to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) is deemed “illegal interference” by China. Tensions surged in 2023–24 after U.S. naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait triggered Chinese military drills. In the South China Sea, China’s Nine-Dash Line claim (rejected by an international tribunal in 2016) and U.S. freedom of navigation operations fuel accusations of “military provocation.” Nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines face strategic pressure from China’s expansion.
With 60% of global maritime trade transiting the South China Sea, heightened tensions risk disrupting supply chains and inflaming worldwide inflation. The U.S. counters by strengthening alliances like the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) and AUKUS (U.S., UK, Australia). European powers like Germany and France struggle to balance U.S. pressure for military cooperation with their trade ties to China.
Current U.S.-China friction reflects deepening strategic rivalry, particularly over Taiwan a core symbol of Beijing’s national unity. Potential flashpoints include accidental military clashes over Taiwan, diplomatic de-escalation through mechanisms like the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES), or a new Cold War dividing the world into tech-trade blocs.
China’s unambiguous warning: “China will never tolerate support for Taiwan separatist forces. The U.S. must understand the grave consequences of such actions.” Chinese Foreign Ministry (June 1, 2025).
This standoff highlights the precarious position of smaller nations navigating superpower competition and reinforces the inevitability of a multipolar world order. Sustainable peace hinges on UN-led mediation and proactive diplomacy by regional stakeholders.
