India-Pakistan Conflict, Pahalgam Incident, Regional Instability, and the Possible Fragmentation of India
# By Abinash Sharma
The relationship between India and Pakistan has always been tense. The terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, has escalated this tension to a new level. Claiming the lives of 26 people, India has regarded this attack as a grave challenge posed by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. This incident has placed India under significant pressure in the South Asian geopolitical landscape. In response, India has threatened measures such as suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and revoking visas for Pakistani nationals. Pakistan, on the other hand, has warned of annulling the Simla Agreement and giving a “decisive response” to India. This scenario has placed India under substantial military, diplomatic, and internal pressure.
The Pahalgam attack has pushed the India-Pakistan conflict closer to the brink of war. India may consider actions such as surgical strikes or air raids, which would further aggravate regional instability. Pakistan’s weak economic condition and internal unrest have compelled it to adopt indirect strategies against India. In this situation, India must balance its military and diplomatic responses carefully to avoid a major regional crisis.
This incident has also raised questions about India’s neighborhood policy. Pakistan has accused India of attempting to block the flow of Indus River water, potentially threatening its agriculture and energy sectors. Bangladesh, although neutral and prioritizing trade and security ties with India, may see a rise in internal dissatisfaction due to India’s growing influence. Tensions with China—especially after the Galwan Valley clash—have further complicated India’s strategic challenges. There is also discontent in Nepal and Sri Lanka regarding India’s regional influence. India’s “Neighborhood First” policy is increasingly being perceived as a pursuit of regional dominance, which may drive neighboring countries to align against it. Without diplomatic recalibration, India risks undermining regional cooperation and stability.
India’s internal situation also contributes to the pressure it faces. The Pahalgam attack has raised doubts about India’s control over Kashmir. Despite considering Kashmir an integral part of the country, persistent unrest and separatist sentiments pose long-term risks. The Siliguri Corridor, known as the “Chicken’s Neck,” is a narrow and strategically vital strip connecting India’s northeastern states to the mainland. This region lies close to China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. If this corridor is blocked, the Seven Sisters—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura—could be cut off. These states have a history of ethnic and cultural diversity fueling separatist movements. Although India has tried to integrate these regions through development projects and military presence, China’s territorial claims and external interference could further destabilize them.
Discussions of India’s possible fragmentation are complex from historical and geopolitical perspectives. The 1947 partition was based on religion, but today, India’s strong central governance, military power, and economic integration reduce the likelihood of large-scale disintegration. However, regional discontent and interference by neighboring countries in areas like Kashmir, the Chicken’s Neck, and the Seven Sisters still pose long-term risks. Movements like Khalistan in Punjab and demands for regional identity in South India also challenge India’s unity.
The Pahalgam incident has compelled India to make tough decisions militarily, diplomatically, and internally. India must respond with restraint yet effectiveness, or else it risks regional war and internal instability. Given the strategic significance of the Chicken’s Neck and the Seven Sisters, India must focus on enhancing security, development, and cultural integration in these areas. Only through improved neighborhood policy and diplomatic balance can regional stability be ensured. If India fails to address these challenges, its regional leadership and internal unity will come under serious scrutiny.
