Nepal: A game of national policy, mistrust, and external influence in the geopolitical maze
# By Bibek Sagar Poudel
Nepal, a nation nestled in the lap of the Himalayas, is embroiled in complex geopolitical challenges, despite its rich cultural heritage and natural beauty. National policies and plans are plagued by an unstable foreign policy, surrounded by deep distrust upon neighbors (especially India and China), and the recent rise in anti-China activities, along with allegations of involvement by the US Intelligence Agency (CIA), have further complicated the environment.
Although the 2015 constitution established a federal republic, persistent deadlock between political parties and frequent changes of government have created serious obstacles to the formulation and implementation of long-term national plans. The vision and pillars of “Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepalis” are well defined. However, poor governance, corruption, obstructive bureaucracy, and budget constraints have made it impossible to implement it effectively. Development projects are often dependent on external loans and aid, which increases the risk of limiting a country’s policy autonomy. This is particularly important in the context of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI).
India has an open border, deep cultural, economic and security ties. However, historically, these relations have also been strained on several occasions. This has increased the sense of distrust towards India. China has dramatically increased its presence in recent years through trade, investment, and security cooperation. This has given Nepal options, as well as created new geopolitical pressures. Nepal has officially adopted a “parallel policy” to balance India and China. However, this policy often appears unstable and ineffective due to pressure from internal political parties, influence from external powers, and diplomatic incompetence.
A large section of Nepali society views India’s role as interventionist and an attempt to undermine Nepal’s sovereignty. This distrust stems from historical events, border disputes, and allegations of India’s influence in Nepali domestic politics. China’s growing influence has also raised concerns. There is also a sense of distrust due to the transparency of Chinese investments, the long-term impact of debt (suspicions of a “debt trap”), and China’s pressure on the Tibetan issue. Both neighbors are concerned about preventing their rivals from increasing their influence in Nepal and ensuring that Nepal does not become a base for any activity against their region. This also puts pressure on Nepal’s security policy.
Serious questions have been raised about the cost, transparency, quality, and viability of loans for Chinese projects. This has created a wave of protests at the local and national levels. Tibetan refugees in Nepal and their supporters carry out activities against China from Nepali soil. China exerts intense pressure on Nepal to control these activities, leading Nepali authorities to adopt a tough stance towards Tibetans. This fuels anti-Chinese sentiment. There is a segment of society that sees China’s growing economic and political influence as a threat to Nepal’s sovereignty and cultural identity. This sentiment seems in particularly evident among the youth, intellectuals, and some political parties.
China and some Nepali politicians and analysts have made serious allegations that the CIA is behind anti-China activities, protests, and media coverage in Nepal. According to their claims, the US is trying to make Nepal a “scapegoat” to limit China’s regional influence. No clear and direct evidence to support these allegations has yet been made public. The CIA keeps its operations secret. The US has an interest in maintaining its influence in Nepal, promoting democracy and human rights, and countering the growing influence of China. Military exercises, and political meetings are expressions of this. These activities may create an environment that directly or indirectly incites anti-China sentiment, but this does not mean that the CIA directly organizes protests. Anti-China sentiment in Nepal is largely due to domestic reasons. External forces try to create an environment conducive to their interests, but there is talk that specific anti-China activities were directly initiated by the CIA.
Nepal is forced to maintain a balance between two powerful neighbors to optimally pursue its national interests, especially economic development and security. This requires: a foreign policy free from internal political conflicts, clear and based on long-term national interests. To reduce dependence on external debt and raise domestic resources, control corruption, and improve governance. To make all external agreements, especially loans and investments, transparent. To emphasize good coordination, permanent dialogue, and peaceful resolution of disputes in relations with both India and China. Maintaining commitment to Nepal’s sovereignty and independent decision-making, even while cooperating with all external partners.
Nepal’s challenge is clear: defending its sovereignty, searching economic progress, and not getting caught up in a dangerous game between two rival superpowers. Its success depends on the Nepali leadership’s diplomatic skills, the strength of internal unity, and clear policies focused on long-term national interests. Only with the ability to rise above external accusations and resolve domestic problems will Nepal be able to emerge safely from this complex geopolitical maze.
