The U.S. Geopolitical Challenge in the Asia-Pacific
# Prem Sagar Poudel
Analyzing the possibility of the failure of the Asia-Pacific strategy and the increase in U.S. presence if India and China stand on the same platform requires an understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. The Asia-Pacific region has become the center of global geopolitics, where China’s rise, India’s growing power, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy have intensified complexities. If India and China adopt a shared strategic stance, it would redefine the regional balance of power and pose a challenge to U.S. interests.
The historical relationship between India and China has been a mix of cooperation and competition. The 1962 war created a deep trust deficit, while recent decades have seen growth in trade and investment. However, fundamental differences such as border disputes persist. Both nations prioritize their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and their interests often clash. Nevertheless, their cooperation in multilateral forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) indicates some shared interests. If they were to overcome serious disagreements like border disputes and form a comprehensive strategic partnership, it would significantly alter the global balance of power.
The primary objective of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is to counter China’s growing influence. This strategy includes the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) involving the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia; Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) by the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea; and economic alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India’s cooperation is crucial to the success of this strategy, as it is a direct neighbor of China and a key regional power in the Indo-Pacific.
If India and China were to engage in long-term strategic cooperation, the existence of QUAD would be threatened. India is a central pillar of QUAD, and its alignment with China would render the grouping ineffective, undermining a major component of U.S. strategy. Moreover, the U.S. would find itself isolated in the region. Japan and Australia are also under China’s economic influence, and without India, the U.S. would struggle to counter China’s expanding reach. Regional nations might also recalibrate their policies to align with the Sino-Indian sphere of influence, further marginalizing the U.S.
If U.S. diplomatic and military efforts through QUAD fail, Washington would be compelled to increase its direct presence to maintain influence. The Asia-Pacific route facilitates a significant portion of global trade, and the U.S. is determined to protect its economic and strategic interests. A China-India alliance would challenge this, prompting the U.S. to enhance its military capabilities. Providing security assurances to nations like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries would necessitate additional military bases, equipment, and troop deployments in the region. The U.S. is committed to preserving its global leadership and would respond to a China-India partnership by bolstering its presence through increased naval deployments, frequent military exercises, and the supply of advanced weapons to allied nations.
The likelihood of a long-term strategic partnership between India and China remains low, as their national interests, particularly concerning border and regional dominance, often conflict. However, if such an improbable scenario were to occur, it would completely undermine the current U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific. In response, the U.S. would intensify its military, diplomatic, and economic presence to retain its power and influence, escalating tensions and power struggles in the region. Ultimately, the Asia-Pacific would become an arena for global power competition, where smaller nations would bear the impact of rivalries among major powers.
(The author is a senior journalist, political analyst, president of the Nepal-China Mutual Cooperation Society, and an expert on international affairs.)
