Government Formation Remains Uncertain in Bagmati as RPP and NWPP Hold Decisive Positions

Dragon Media Correspondent

Efforts to build a new political alliance in Bagmati Province have intensified after Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniya’s government lost its majority, but uncertainty persists over who will lead the next administration.

CPN-UML lawmaker Kiran Thapa has emerged as a prospective chief minister, while Baniya is attempting to retain power by securing the support of smaller parties.

Under a reported understanding between the CPN-UML and the Nepal Communist Party, the UML is expected to lead the provincial government. Although efforts are underway within the UML to install Thapa as chief minister, the party has not yet been able to formally present a claim because it lacks a confirmed majority.

Thapa had been preparing to stake a claim to form a new government on Wednesday, expecting support from several members of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. His plan, however, has become uncertain because the RPP has yet to take an institutional decision.

RPP provincial lawmakers who had previously appeared positive about supporting Thapa are now waiting for instructions from the party’s central leadership.

RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden has convened a meeting of the party’s Central Performance Committee to determine its role in the changing provincial power equation. The meeting is expected to decide whether the party will support a new government, cooperate with the incumbent administration or remain neutral.

The party leadership is reportedly not in favour of immediately joining the provincial government. Discussions are also underway on whether the RPP should support one side without entering the government or remain separate from both alliances. Should the meeting fail to reach a consensus, Chairman Lingden could be authorised to make the final decision.

The RPP has 12 members in the Bagmati Provincial Assembly, but they do not appear united over which side to support. Parliamentary party leader Uddhav Thapa and lawmaker Raju Bista are reportedly in favour of backing Kiran Thapa, while another group, including former Speaker Bhuwan Pathak, is said to prefer cooperation with Chief Minister Baniya.

Provincial lawmakers have been instructed not to sign in support of either side until the central leadership makes a formal decision. The possibility of disciplinary action against lawmakers acting against the party’s directive has also restricted individual initiatives within the RPP.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Baniya has brought the two-member Hamro Nepali Party into the government as part of his effort to retain power. Shailendraman Bajracharya of the party has already been appointed Minister for Physical Infrastructure Development.

Baniya is also attempting to bring the RPP into the government and is reportedly prepared to recall some ministers from his own party to accommodate it.

Even with the support of all 12 RPP lawmakers and the Hamro Nepali Party, however, Baniya would command only 50 seats. He would also require the backing of the three-member Nepal Workers and Peasants Party to secure a majority.

The Bagmati Provincial Assembly currently has 104 members, meaning at least 53 votes are required to form a government. The Nepali Congress holds 36 seats, the Nepal Communist Party 26, the CPN-UML 25, the RPP 12, the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party three and the Hamro Nepali Party two.

The UML and the Nepal Communist Party together hold 51 seats, leaving a potential Kiran Thapa-led government at least two votes short of a majority. With the Hamro Nepali Party already participating in the Baniya government, the UML has focused its attention on securing RPP support.

On the other hand, Baniya can reach the minimum majority of 53 only if the Nepali Congress, Hamro Nepali Party, RPP and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party all stand together.

The Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, however, has maintained a policy of neither joining the provincial government nor supporting any party in government formation.

Unless the party abandons its neutral position, Baniya will face serious difficulty in retaining power. At the same time, the RPP’s failure to reach a clear decision has prevented the proposed new alliance from advancing the government formation process.

Bagmati Province’s political arithmetic therefore remains caught between the RPP’s pending institutional decision and the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party’s policy of neutrality.