Early Return to Normal Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz Unlikely: Energy Expert Salameh

Dragon Media News Desk

Iran has shown no indication that it intends to soften its position in talks with the United States, making it premature to expect a full restoration of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraqi energy expert Mamdouh Salameh has said.

Salameh, an expert on global energy and oil markets, said reports suggesting significant progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran largely reflected speculation circulating in Western media. According to him, Iran’s actual negotiating position remains tougher than public reporting may suggest.

He assessed that Iran would be unlikely to restore normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz unless its principal conditions were met. Salameh cited an end to US military operations, the removal of American military bases from Gulf countries, and the withdrawal of US forces from the Gulf region as possible key conditions sought by Tehran.

According to Salameh, Iran may also seek formal recognition of its role in ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz. He further suggested that Tehran could seek to introduce transit fees for vessels passing through the waterway.

Salameh estimated that such fees could amount to between five and seven percent of the value of cargo carried by vessels. These points, however, represent Salameh’s analysis and assessment. The material provided does not indicate that the Iranian government has publicly confirmed all of them as formal and final negotiating conditions.

He said the current political and military environment makes an early return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz unlikely.

Salameh estimated that the crisis could last for several months and potentially up to a year. If that situation persists, he said it could affect international oil prices, energy security, maritime transportation and the broader global economy.

The expert also raised the possibility that the United States could again resort to military action in an effort to restore commercial shipping through the strait. He warned, however, that such a scenario would carry serious risks, further complicating the security environment in the Gulf and potentially triggering wider regional escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically sensitive maritime energy corridors. Political and military instability surrounding the waterway therefore has implications not only for security in the Middle East but also for international oil markets, energy supplies and the global economy.

Salameh’s assessment suggests that the future of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer merely a question of maritime access. It is increasingly tied to the broader confrontation between the United States and Iran, the regional security architecture and the evolving balance of power in the Gulf.