Intensifying El Niño Deepens Economic Risks Across Latin America
Dragon Media News Desk
In Tecoluca, central El Salvador, some farmers are replanting after losing their first harvest, hoping that scattered showers will provide enough water for a second crop. But the rainfall pattern remains unpredictable. Salvadoran meteorologist Danilo Ramírez said rain may fall on one day, followed by five, six or even eight days without precipitation.
The uncertainty reflects a wider challenge across Latin America as El Niño intensifies. Changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are threatening crops, water supplies and electricity systems. The effects could range from food shortages and falling household incomes to weaker exports, pressure on power supplies and greater demands on public resources.
In Central America’s Dry Corridor, many rural families rely on corn and beans both for food and for income from selling part of their harvest. El Salvador is among the countries in this region, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Heat and water shortages damaged crops planted during the country’s first growing season, normally from April to June, Ramírez said. Some farmers are taking advantage of brief spells of rain to plant again, but the irregular rainfall leaves their prospects uncertain. El Salvador issued a nationwide red alert over drought in August.
Patricio González, an agricultural climatology professor at the University of Talca in Chile, said poor harvests affect families in several ways: they have less food to eat and less produce to sell; reduced supplies can push up prices; and struggling farms may hire fewer workers. Farmers without reliable access to credit or financial assistance are especially vulnerable, he said.
In Brazil, the official outlook for September through November points to below-average rainfall in the north, northeast and parts of the central and southeastern regions. Parts of the south, meanwhile, are expected to receive more rain than usual. Agricultural meteorologist Luis Renato Lazinski said the contrasting conditions could expose major crops to drought in some areas and excessive rainfall in others, affecting both domestic supplies and agricultural exports.
In Peru, the effects are already weighing on the economic outlook. The central bank cut its 2026 growth forecast in September from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent, citing a greater-than-expected impact from coastal El Niño conditions.
Water shortages also threaten the electricity supply. Around 60 percent of Venezuela’s electricity comes from hydropower plants in the south. Ecologist Francisco Herrera warned that severe drought combined with high temperatures could put substantial pressure on electricity supplies early next year. Reduced water availability could constrain generation just as rising temperatures drive up demand.
The effects may also reach international trade. Recent rainfall and water-saving measures have improved navigation conditions at the Panama Canal, allowing more vessel transits and a higher maximum permitted draft. However, water shortages persist in the canal’s watershed. Exporters face risks both at the point of production and along the route to market: lower output can reduce shipments, while transport constraints can delay deliveries and raise costs.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has warned that an extreme El Niño could cause losses equivalent to at least 2 percent of the region’s gross domestic product and push an additional 4.8 million people into poverty.
Governments across the region are working to address existing losses and prepare for potentially worsening conditions in the coming months. In August, Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 607 districts across 16 regions because of the risk of water shortages. Authorities have provided livestock feed, vaccines and drinking-water facilities, as well as water-storage infrastructure and small dams to help farmers cope with drought.
Venezuela has announced an electricity-saving plan and called for contingency measures in agriculture. Thermal power plants could help offset reduced hydropower generation, Herrera said, but that would require more fossil fuels and increase greenhouse gas emissions. In Brazil, federal agencies are coordinating climate and water monitoring, while urging residents to heed official warnings, identify local risk areas and learn evacuation routes.
In El Salvador, immediate priorities include securing supplies of staple grains, managing water carefully and protecting soil so farms can better withstand dry conditions, Ramírez said.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has stressed that seasonal forecasts give countries valuable time to prepare and that existing knowledge and tools can help protect lives and livelihoods before hazards become crises.
“El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster,” Saulo said.
