Nepal’s power transformation and a new geopolitical turn

#Prem Sagar Poudel

“I am resting not because I am defeated, but because I am tired.” – Duryodhana
Krishna smiled, because he understood — the arrogant never accept defeat.

This mythological dialogue is contextual to understanding the current unstable and sensitive political situation in Nepal. By the end of the final battle in the Mahabharata, most of the Pandavas’ companions were already lying in the dust, but Duryodhana was still hiding in the water, saying he was “tired.” But Krishna understood that the war was not over; he just did not want to accept defeat.

Politics in today’s Nepal also seems to be in line with this mood. The long-held power structure of the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML has collapsed. With the demise of these old power centers, a new power system has emerged under the conjunction of a relatively unusual leader, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. This government is not a victory for any party, but an explosion of constantly suppressed aspirations.

This transformation of political leadership was not a natural transition. This change began in the streets, where the younger generation, especially Gen-Z, stood up openly against corruption, injustice, and institutional collapse. However, in the shadow of this movement, another quiet game was taking place: a geopolitical conflict.

Just as Nepal’s power has been shaken by internal factors, the tug-of-war of external forces seems to have changed its direction. In particular, America’s activism is not directly military, but deep state: intensive diplomacy based on human rights, good governance, and leadership restructuring is being portrayed as an indirect influence on the new government. The use of civil society, NGOs, and Western thinking was seen strongly this time.

While India’s approach is clear, it is not easy. India, with its centuries-old cultural and strategic ties, is watching this accidental power transition with deep eyes. For India, which has had an uneasy relationship with the Oli leadership, the demise of the Congress-UML and the rise of American influence could become a politically complex equation. The Indian diplomatic circle wants stability in Nepal, but there is also a hidden expectation that that stability be favorable to Indian interests and controlled.

At the same time, China’s silence carries a serious meaning. China, which responds quickly in general situations, now appears to be restrained towards Nepal. That doesn’t mean reluctance; it means foresight. China has been using time, investment, and strategy, not power, to expand its influence in Nepal. China appears to be adopting a wait-and-see policy on projects including the Belt and Road Initiative. Looking at the geopolitical situation of Nepal in the center, it is understood that China is preparing to analyze the situation and formulate a strategy for the future, rather than taking a step now.

Former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who was removed from power, has not admitted that he has stepped down. On the contrary, by making a statement saying, “I have no intention of quitting politics,” he wants to send a message that he is not defeated but waiting. His aspirations for a political comeback seem to be in the style of Duryodhana, where, despite losing power, his self-confidence is still alive.

But times have changed. The psychology of the people has changed. New era politics is not possible with old styles. The power that came from the streets is decisive now, the same power that brought about a stir in the governing apparatus, raising its voice to make the courts free from interference, and placing a representative of the judiciary in power.

However, this change is not without risk. If the current government fails to move forward in line with the spirit of the streets, if transparency and accountability are limited to slogans, this new system will also become the new face of the old trend. People’s hopes have now reached the level of not just seeking alternatives, but demanding change.

Nepal is currently at a decisive juncture. The balance of power has been disrupted; the conflict between ideals and self-interest has reached its peak. This time is sensitive not only from a diplomatic perspective, but also from a moral perspective. History has provided an opportunity, but to miss that opportunity is to be pushed into another era of indecision.

Author: Prem Sagar Poudel is a senior journalist and international relations analyst from Nepal. He has conducted in-depth studies on Nepal-China relations, the geopolitics of the Himalayan region, and Asian security.